TORONTO, Sept. 5, 2024 /CNW/ - Aclara Resources Inc. ("Aclara" or the "Company") (TSX: ARA) is pleased to announce the results of the Company's updated preliminary economic analysis (the "PEA") on its regolith-hosted ion adsorption clay project located in the State of Goiás, Brazil, known as the Carina Module (the "Project").
The technical report titled "Preliminary Economic Assessment Update - Carina Rare Earth Element Project - Nova Roma, Goiás, Brazil" (the "Report" or "Carina Module PEA") dated September 5, 2024 was prepared in accordance with National Instrument 43-101- Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects ("NI 43-101") by GE21 Consultoria Mineral ("GE21"), a specialized, independent mineral consulting company located in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The Report, with an effective date of May 3, 2024, supports the disclosures made by Aclara in its August 9, 2024 press release announcing the updated maiden mineral resources estimate (the "MRE") for the Project (the "August 2024 Press Release"). There are no material differences in the mineral resources or results of the preliminary economic assessment as described in the Report and the results disclosed in the August 2024 Press Release. The Report has been filed and can be found under the Company's profile on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca) and on Aclara's website (www.aclara-re.com).
Highlights
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1 Annual average does not consider the first year of ramp-up and the last year of ramp-down. |
2 The resulting Chinese production of DyTb derived from its 2023 rare earth oxides quotas for mining production is approximately 1,520 tonnes (source: The Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology). |
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3 Purity is expressed as REO equivalent. |
Aclara's CEO, Ramon Barua, commented:
"The PEA highlights the Carina Module's notable economic potential, with an after-tax NPV of US$1.5 billion based on the base case price forecast, and US$2.2 billion when considering the incentive price forecast. These figures underscore the Project's status as a high-quality heavy rare earth asset, designed to deliver significant annual dysprosium and terbium production, representing approximately 13% of China's official output in 2023.
The medium to long-term outlook for rare earth elements, particularly heavy rare earths, remains strong due to their global scarcity. Increasing international regulations are enhancing the development of alternative supply chains beyond China, and Argus's incentive price forecast indicates substantial upside potential for rare earths in response to future demand.
Our focus is now on expediting the path to early production. We have recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the State of Goiás and Nova Roma Municipality in Brazil as a means to accelerate the permitting process and facilitate the swift implementation of the Carina Module, with the goal of starting production between 2027 and 2028."
Key Project Parameters Compared to Previous PEA
Table 1 and Table 2 list the relevant parameters associated with the Project's operating and financial metrics as compared to the previous preliminary economic assessment filed on January 23, 2024 (the "Previous PEA"):
Table 1: Key Project Operating Parameters Compared to Previous PEA
PEA | Previous PEA | ||||
Unit | Total | Annual | Total | Annual | |
Mining and Processing | |||||
Life of Mine | years | 22 | - | 17 | - |
Total Process Plant Feed | million tonnes (dry) | 203.0 | 9.6 | 149.5 | 9.6 |
Total Waste Mined | million tonnes (dry) | 64.2 | 3.0 | 43.3 | 2.6 |
Strip Ratio | - | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Production | |||||
Total Rare Earth Oxides | tonnes | 99,931 | 4,736 | 70,307 | 4,498 |
Neodymium & Praseodymium (NdPr) | tonnes | 28,514 | 1,248 | 18,546 | 1,190 |
Dysprosium (Dy) | tonnes | 3,420 | 163 | 2,802 | 178 |
Terbium (Tb) | tonnes | 587 | 28 | 479 | 30 |
*Note: Annual average does not include the first year of ramp-up and the last year of ramp-down |
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4 Magnetic REE include Neodymium (Nd), Praseodymium (Pr), Dysprosium (Dy) and Terbium (Tb). |
Table 2: Key Project Financial Parameters Compared to Previous PEA
PEA | Previous PEA | ||||||
Base Case (Chinese Prices) | Incentive Case (Non-Chinese Prices) | Base Case (Chinese Prices) | |||||
Unit | Total | Annual | Total | Annual | Total | Annual | |
Financials | |||||||
Net Revenue | US$ million | 10,554 | 505 | 13,091 | 626 | 7,355 | 474 |
Net Smelter Return | US$/t | 52.0 | - | 64.5 | - | 49.2 | - |
Basket Price (2029-2034) | US$/kg | 88.8 | - | 104.6 | - | 107.4 | - |
Basket Price (LOM) | US$/kg | 122.4 | - | 142.8 | - | 121.2 | - |
Production Cost | US$ million | 2,757 | 129 | 2,757 | 129 | 1,965 | 125 |
Unit Cost | US$/t processed | 13.6 | - | 13.6 | - | 13.1 | - |
Unit Cost | US$/kg REO | 27.6 | - | 27.6 | - | 27.9 | |
EBITDA | US$ million | 7,586 | 366 | 10,072 | 485 | 5,243 | 340 |
EBITDA Margin | % | 72 | - | 77 | - | 71 | - |
Income Tax | US$ million | 2,334 | 118 | 3,172 | 154 | 1,532 | 101 |
Effective Tax Rate | % | 36.1 | - | 35.9 | - | 36.2 | - |
Initial Capital | US$ million | 592.6 | - | 592.6 | - | 575.8 | - |
Royalty Purchase Cost | US$ million | 6.5 | - | 6.5 | - | 6.5 | - |
Sustaining Capital | US$ million | 85.8 | - | 85.8 | - | 106.2 | - |
Financial Returns | |||||||
Pre-Tax Net Present Value (8%) | US$ million | 2,337 | - | 3,051 | - | 1,880 | - |
Pre-Tax Internal Rate of Return | % | 32.2 | - | 40.5 | - | 35.7 | - |
Post-Tax Net Present Value (8%) | US$ million | 1,483 | - | 2,159 | - | 1,186 | - |
Post-Tax Internal Rate of Return | % | 26.5 | - | 33.1 | - | 28.6 | - |
Payback Period | years | 4.2 | - | 3.4 | - | 3.6 | - |
*Note: Annual average does not include the first year of ramp-up and the last year of ramp-down |
Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis was undertaken to evaluate the impact on NPV through variation of the basket price, discount rate, CAPEX, OPEX and metallurgical recovery rates.
The discount rate was evaluated by varying its value from 4% to 12% while the remaining attributes were evaluated by varying their values from 80% to 120% (Figure 2).
Mineral Resource Statement
The Carina Module's mineral resources have been estimated using the results obtained from 283 auger drill holes (2,101m), 80 reverse circulation holes (2,003m) and 3,789 samples. At a US$7.4/t NSR cut-off, the Carina Module is estimated to contain 297.6 million tonnes ("Mt") in the inferred mineral resource category @ 1,452 ppm TREO containing an average Dy and Tb grade of 39 ppm and 6 ppm, respectively (Table 3). The MRE is reported in accordance with the requirements of NI 43-101.
Table 3. Carina Module Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate (Effective May 3, 2024)
Mineral Classification | Mass (Mt) | Total Oxide Grade (ppm) | Oxide Content (t) | ||||||
TREO | NdPr | Dy | Tb | TREO | NdPr | Dy | Tb | ||
Inferred | 297.6 | 1,452 | 284 | 39 | 6 | 432,003 | 84,565 | 11,573 | 1,897 |
Total | 297.6 | 1,452 | 284 | 39 | 6 | 432,003 | 84,565 | 11,573 | 1,897 |
Notes: |
1. CIM (2014) definitions were followed for mineral resources. |
2. Mineral resources are estimated above an NSR value of US$7.4/t. |
3. Mineral resources are estimated using average long term metal prices and metallurgical recoveries (see PEA for details). |
4. Mineral resources are not mineral reserves and do not have demonstrated economic viability. |
Project Description
The Project is based on standard open pit extraction techniques using conventional hydraulic excavators and 44t payload haulage trucks to extract and deliver the clays to the process plant. The process plant has been located close to the centre of mass of the mining operation to minimise the total haulage distance over the life of mine. Given the friable nature of the clays and the shallow depth of the extraction zones, no aggressive nor energy-intensive techniques such as drilling and blasting are required to extract the clays from the pits. Table 4 lists the key input parameters used in the mine design.
Table 4: Key Mine Design Parameters
Description | Unit | Value |
Pit Optimization | ||
Overall Slope Angle | degree | 25 |
Reference Mining Cost | US$/t mined | 2.13 |
Mining Recovery | % | 98.5 |
Mining Dilution | % | 1.5 |
Processing Cost | US$/t processed | 10.46 |
Selling Cost | US$/kg REO | 7.032 |
Federal Royalty | % of revenue | 3 |
REO Price | US$/kg REO | variable by REO |
Pit design | ||
Bench Height | m | 4 |
Berm Width | m | 3.5 |
Bench Slope Angle | degree | 38 |
Ramp Width | m | 12 |
Ramp Gradient | % | 10 |
Scheduling | ||
Minimum Operational Area | m | 25 |
Plant feed | Mt/year | 9.6 |
Once the clay is delivered to the process plant, it will be washed using an ammonium sulfate solution to extract the REEs from the clay surfaces. No crushing, grinding nor milling is needed to free the REEs from the clays as they are extracted through a non-invasive ion-exchange reaction process whereby ammonium sulfate ions replace REE ions on the surface of the clay thereby liberating the REEs into solution. The REEs in solution are then removed through a pH-adjusted precipitation process and then passed through a high-pressure filter to remove any remaining liquids, resulting in the production of a high-purity REE carbonate ready for shipment to a separation facility. The process plant will have an average production rate of 4,736 t/year of REO within the concentrates.
Any unwanted impurities such as aluminium and calcium that have been extracted from the clays during the ion exchange process are similarly removed through a precipitation process and then recombined with the washed clays before being transported to a dry stacking storage facility for the first five years of the life of mine. Beginning in year 6, the washed clays will be back-filled to the mined-out extraction zones to initiate the mine closure process.
A water recovery system integrated into the process plant cleans and regenerates the remaining process liquors such that they can be reintroduced into the feed. The treated water is reused in a closed circuit to reduce water consumption thereby preventing the release of process water into the environment. This allows the process plant to operate with the minimum of make-up water and allows the main reagents to be regenerated and reused within the process plant.
Before the barren clays exit the process plant, they are washed with clean water within standard plate-and-frame filter presses. This will remove any residual ammonium sulfate from the clays before they are returned to either a dry stacking facility or used to back-fill the extraction zones to be safely used during revegetation.
The Project includes the necessary infrastructure to provide make-up water for the process plant, supply power to the site, and provide a road network to service the operation, amongst others.
Electrical power for the processing plant, truck shop, administration offices, and other facilities will be supplied by the national power utility through overhead power transmission lines from a sub-station located approximately 90 km from the project site.
REE Market Outlook and Pricing5
Vehicle electrification, wind turbines and the transition to renewable energy sources will continue to drive demand for REEs in terms of volume and, especially, value. This will primarily affect the REEs used in alloys to fabricate permanent magnets (i.e., Dy, Nd, Pr, and Tb). The supply of clean heavy REEs, especially Dy, has become problematic because few projects target heavy REE deposits. For the medium term, the market will continue to rely on China and Myanmar for heavy REE feedstocks.
The prices of permanent magnet REEs dropped significantly in 2023 due to a weak recovery from lockdowns in China and economic challenges in other areas. The prices of Nd, Pr, and Tb fell 40–45% from early 2023 and July 2024. However, the Dy price outperformed the market, falling only 20–25% over the same period, indicating a more constrained supply of Dy as compared to other permanent magnet REEs. Argus expects permanent magnet REE prices to increase steadily for the remainder of the decade, with the possibility of increasing at a faster rate in the early 2030s absent additional supply from new projects or increases in the availability of secondary (recycled) REEs. Dy prices are expected to continue to outperform the general permanent magnet REE market due to a tighter supply/demand balance going forward. Between the years 2023 to 2034, Nd, Pr, and Tb prices are predicted to rise at a rate of 5–8% per year, whereas Dy prices are expected to increase 12% per year.
According to Argus, there are two external factors which could have the potential to positively affect future REE prices: so-called 'green' premiums; and critical material policies (particularly within Europe and the US). Critical materials policies and regulations being enacted globally, specifically the European Critical Raw Materials Act and the United States Inflation Reduction Act, are focussed on creating raw material supply chains that are not reliant on China, which could provide advantages to non-Chinese suppliers of REEs in terms of market access and, potentially, pricing premiums. In May 2023, the US Department of Energy identified Dy as the most critical mineral in terms of its importance to the energy sector and the risks of supply chain disruption.
In an effort to account for critical raw material regulations, Argus has modelled an incentive price for magnetic rare earths, where the rare earths market effectively has a dual pricing model (Chinese and non-Chinese) that forecasts the level that REE prices would have to reach to incentivize the supply of REE from producers outside of China. Under the incentive price scenario, the forward curve for Dy grows at 15% per year, compared to 12% per year in the base case scenario (Table 5).
Table 5: Dysprosium Price Forecast
2022 | 2023 | 2028 | 2034 | 2023 vs 2022 | 2028 vs 2023 | 2034 vs 2028 | CAGR 2023– | |
Dy | ||||||||
Base Case Price* (US$/kg) | 384 | 331 | 595 | 1,100 | –14 | 80 | 85 | 12 |
Incentive Price (US$/kg) | 384 | 331 | 515 | 1,400 | –14 | 56 | 170 | 15 |
Total supply (×1,000 t REO) | 1.7 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 50 | 39 | 23 | 5 |
Total demand (×1,000 t REO) | 2.8 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 16 | 62 | 32 | 7 |
Surplus/deficit index (2018 = 100) | 98 | 96 | 77 | 43 | – | – | – | – |
*99.5–99.9% fob China |
The following provides an example of illustrating the potential decoupling of rare earths prices between those sourced from and outside of China, modelled using gallium, germanium and antimony. In September 2024, China will be adding antimony to its export controls for certain metals (in addition to gallium and germanium, which were made subject to its export controls in August 2023). US-delivered prices for antimony have increased approximately 25% as compared to prices for antimony sourced from China, while prices for gallium and germanium sourced on an ex-works China basis have reflected a potential premium of up to 85% in the case of gallium (currently a premium of 45%) and up to 25% in the case of germanium (currently a premium of 10%) (Figure 3). The incentive pricing scenario seeks to emulate a situation where the main economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan are required to supply rare earths outside of China supported by critical materials policies/regulations being enacted in such countries.
_______________________________ |
5 Argus Media |
In consideration of the price forecasts provided by Argus, the basket price of the Carina Project has been modelled through the life of mine, reflecting expected commercial discounts (Figure 4 and Figure 5).
Targeted Development Timeline
The permitting process is currently underway and the technical development of the Project will continue with a feasibility study of the Carina Module scheduled to be delivered in 2026 and commencement of operations projected to begin in 2029 (Table 6). Following the Memorandum of Understanding signed with the Government of Goiás and the Municipality of Nova Roma, the Company is evaluating the possibility to expedite the production schedule to begin between 2027 and 2028.
Proposed Next Steps
Qualified Persons
The technical information in this press release has been reviewed and approved by geologist Fábio Xavier, mining engineer Porfírio Cabaleiro Rodriguez, geographer and environmental analyst Mrs. Branca Horta of GE21 Consultoria Mineral Ltd., as well as Chemical Engineer Stuart J Saich of Promet101 Consulting Pty Ltd. GE21 is a specialized, independent mineral consulting company based in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, and Promet101 is an independent process engineering consulting company based in Santiago, Chile. Mr. Jorge Frutuoso, Aclara Geology Manager, and Mr. Juan Pablo Navarro Ramirez, Chief Geologist for Aclara, acted as the Qualified Person for the geological sections of the report.
Mr. Xavier is a Member of Australian Institute of Geoscientists (MAIG #5179) and is a Qualified Person as defined under NI 43-101. He is responsible for the mineral resource estimate and has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information related to the mineral resource estimate contained in this press release.
Mr. Rodriguez is a fellow of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists (FAIG #3708) and is a Qualified Person as defined under NI 43-101. He has more than 40 years of experience in mineral resource/reserve estimation and is the leader of the Project acting as overall supervisor with respect to the objectives of the Report.
Mrs. Horta is a Member of the Australian Institute of Geoscientists (MAIG #8145) and is a Qualified Person as defined under NI 43-101. She has reviewed and approved the content of the Report as it relates to environmental and permitting attributes of the Project.
Messrs. Rodriguez and Xavier visited the project from August 16 to August 18, 2023, during the auger drilling campaign executed by the GE21 team under the coordination of Geologist André Costa (FAIG#7967). Mr. Xavier returned to the project from July 17 to July 18, 2024, during the reverse circulation drilling campaign conducted by the Aclara team under the coordination of Geologist Luiz Jorge Frutuoso Junior (FAIG#8100).
Mr. Frutuoso Junior, Aclara's Exploration Manager, supported both visits.Mr. Saich is a professional chemical engineer with more than 37 years' relevant experience in metallurgy and process design development. He is with a member of the Australian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (FAUSIMM, (#222028), the Canadian Institute of Mining (CIM # 631368), the Society for Mining, Exploration & Metallurgy (SME# 04101270) and is a Qualified Person as defined under NI 43-101.
Mr. Frutuoso is a Fellow of Australian Institute of Geoscientists (FAIG #8100) and Fellow of Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (FAusIMM #3044851) is a Qualified Person as defined under NI 43-101. He is responsible for the geological sections and has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information related to the mineral resource estimate contained in this press release.
Mr. Navarro is a Member of Australian Institute of Geoscientists (MAIG #9021) and is a Qualified Person as defined under NI 43-101. He is responsible for the geological sections and has reviewed and approved the scientific and technical information related to the mineral resource estimate contained in this press release.
About Aclara
Aclara Resources Inc. (TSX: ARA) is a development-stage company that focuses on heavy rare earth mineral resources hosted in Ion-Adsorption Clay deposits. The Company's rare earth mineral resource development projects include the Carina Module in the State of Goiás, Brazil as its flagship project and the Penco Module in the Bio-Bio Region of Chile.
Aclara's rare earth extraction process offers several environmentally attractive features. Circular mineral harvesting does not involve blasting, crushing, or milling, and therefore does not generate tailings and eliminates the need for a tailing's storage facility. The extraction process developed by Aclara minimizes water consumption through high levels of water recirculation made possible by the inclusion of a water treatment facility within its patented process design. The ionic clay feedstock is amenable to leaching with a common fertilizer main reagent, ammonium sulfate. In addition to the development of the Penco Module and the Carina Module, the Company will continue to identify and evaluate opportunities to increase future production of heavy rare earths through greenfield exploration programs and the development of additional projects within the Company's current concessions in Brazil, Chile, and Peru.
Aclara has decided to vertically integrate its rare earths concentrate production towards the manufacturing of rare earths alloys. The Company has established a U.S.-based subsidiary, Aclara Technologies Inc., which will focus on developing technologies for rare earth separation, metals, and alloys. Additionally, the Company is advancing its metals and alloys business through a joint venture with CAP S.A., leveraging CAP's extensive expertise in metal refining and special ferro-alloyed steels.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains "forward-looking information" within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, which reflects the Company's current expectations regarding future events, including statements with regard to, among other things, mineral continuity, grade, methodology, development timeline, production timing and upside at the Carina Module, the Company's exploration plan, drilling campaigns and activities in Brazil and the expectations of the Company's management as to the results of such exploration works and drilling activities, timing, cost and scope in respect of the exploration activities in Brazil, the results and interpretations of its updated maiden MRE and the PEA relating to the Carina Module, the timing and issuance of a prefeasibility study and feasibility study for the Carina Module and related exploration and other work programs in respect thereof, the initiation and timing of environmental, archeological and geological studies for the Carina Module, the progression of and pricing forecast of the REE market, and other statements that are not material facts. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the Company's control. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to risks related to operating in a foreign jurisdiction, including political and economic risks in Chile and Brazil; risks related to changes to mining laws and regulations and the termination or non-renewal of mining rights by governmental authorities; risks related to failure to comply with the law or obtain necessary permits and licenses or renew them; cost of compliance with applicable environmental regulations; actual production, capital and operating costs may be different than those anticipated; the Company may be not able to successfully complete the development, construction and start-up of mines and new development projects; risks related to fluctuation in commodity prices; risks related to mining operations; and dependence on the Penco Module and/or the Carina Module. Aclara cautions that the foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive. For a detailed discussion of the foregoing factors, among others, please refer to the risk factors discussed under "Risk Factors" in the Company's annual information form dated as of March 22, 2024, filed on the Company's SEDAR+ profile. Actual results and timing could differ materially from those projected herein. Unless otherwise noted or the context otherwise indicates, the forward-looking information contained in this press release is provided as of the date of this press release and the Company does not undertake any obligation to update such forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as expressly required under applicable securities laws.
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